Basketball On The Internet.

REGULAR WNBL watchers most likely have locked away Kennedy Kereama's barnstorming Bendigo, pulsating Perth and talented Townsville in their Final Four but that last spot in the playoffs should come from Sydney or Canberra. Geelong and Adelaide really merely look spoilers now and Southside simply spoilt.

Truth is the Spirit's blend of experienced, wise heads have seen them set the pace since the season tipped off. Second-placed Perth has pinched a game off them and now Townsville has added WNBA star Nia Coffey - a revelation with Adelaide Lightning a few seasons back - it really would take a massive and virtually inconceivable form reversal for the Fire to falter.

That leaves Sydney (6-9), Geelong (6-10), Canberra (5-11) and Adelaide (5-11) still in the hunt for that coveted final spot in the post-season, albeit most likely with a losing record and for only a very short stop in the playoffs.

Why do the Flames and Capitals seem the most likely to fight out that final berth?

It's easy. They have only met once so far this regular season, for a 102-85 Sydney win way way back in Round 1.

They meet twice yet in the run to the finals and both of those games are home matches for Canberra.

Let's not forget the Caps also have regained a league MVP in Abby Bishop.

Sydney's six remaining games start tonight away to Townsville and most of us would predict a Fire win there. Then it is Perth at home, Canberra away twice, Townsville at home and Southside away.

{And who knows what yet lies in store for Townsville (10-5) and whether it can catch and dislodge Perth (13-4) from second place? Point is the Fire won't be taking their eye off the ball at all.}

Realistically for the Flames then, there could be as many as five wins in that lot for Sydney or, far more likely, two or three. Let's be generous and go with three for a final record of 9-12.

Canberra has Southside at home, Sydney at home twice, split by a road game to Geelong, and a final trip to Bendigo. The Caps could win four of those but best case may still only be three. That would be 8-13 and not enough to oust the Flames.

But really, what it comes down to is the two games between Canberra and Sydney. If either team can sweep (which would mean a 3-0 season series win for Sydney or a 2-1 season-series win for the Capitals) they would be in the box seat to still be playing while four other clubs are looking to 2025-26.

Geelong as a debutante and with three key players out, has been nothing short of extraordinary and a tribute to coach Chris Lucas and a hardy roster that doesn't know the meaning of surrender.

Unfortunately it has shown it knows the meaning of turnovers and missed easy shots, so with matches left against finals-bound Townsville (away), Bendigo (home) and Perth (away), those shape as a 0-3 return.

Canberra at home and Adelaide away are gettable but the Caps should be deep into that rush at the Final Four and unlikely to slip.

Adelaide too has finals-bound Bendigo (away), Perth (home) and Townsville (home), before Southside (away) and Geelong (home).

Best the Lightning can hope for is two wins.

As it looks, United and Lightning would need miracles now to advance, Sydney and Canberra with their fate in  their own hands.

And that's just as it should be.