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AT 8-15 but with more games in hand than anyone other than Brisbane, New Zealand faces its future in NBL Round 16 with key home matches against Perth and Illawarra, after tonight's roadie to Melbourne. 

It's as big a test as the Breakers have been put through this season and we all know they've already been put through hell.

Thomas Abercrombie, the Larry Sengstock Medallist of the club's first championship, will play his 355th NBL game for the Breakers, breaking the record set by Kiwi warrior Mika Vukona of 354.

But it won't truly count for much if New Zealand drops any one of these three vital fixtures.

Adelaide is out of the picture but hosts the Queensland connection this round, Brisbane and Cairns.

Perth at Melbourne to conclude this round should end it on a high, both clubs clearly the pacemakers of Season 2021.

 

 

 

   ROUND 16

 

 

THERE'S much shared history between these two clubs, with United coach Dean Vickerman steering both New Zealand and Melbourne to NBL championships. The Breakers are on the improve and making a late, belated run at the post-season but with United at home and one win from 10 in succession, it's tough to tip against them.

 

 

Have so many weapons, one or two can afford to misfire.

 

WHEN the Phoenix are rolling, they can look like world-beaters. Case in point? Their 20-point road win over Cairns last round. When they're not, they look like egg-beaters. Case in point? Their 20-point home loss to Sydney last week. The good news for South East fans is Brisbane is as erratic a team as there is in this comp so SEM should win. But the Bullets also do weird stuff at times.

 

 

At their best, this is a no-brainer. But they do have crazy moments.

 

PERTH and New Zealand have fought out an overtime thriller, the Breakers recently won in Perth, and the history between these clubs does appear to play a factor. Normally, you'd just automatically pencil in the Wildcats for another W against a team which looks out of contention but if you like a tipple, New Zealand is the one to take a chance on.

 

 

Perth must start favourite but it is no certainty.

 

HERE it is, the clash of the chronic underachievers Brisbane and Adelaide, with the 36ers boasting the advantage of being at home, for whatever that's worth right now. As we've noted before, for half the Bullets lineup - Cadee, Sobey, Drmic, Froling, Hodgson - Adelaide was home so this will just come down to which version of either club shows up on the night. Who knows? Who cares? These are teams filled with players who routinely break their fans' hearts.

 

 

Don't bank on Adelaide. It's just that Brisbane is equally untrustworthy.

 

THE Kings have been doing magnificently, covering the loss of players on a regular basis but this will be the point where it becomes too much. Beating league-leading United in Melbourne at a time when Brad Newley now has joined the ranks of the injured means that "next man up" mentality the Kings have perfected won't count for much when the bodies are starting to run out.

 

 

Sydney keeps hanging in but it's running out of players to hang out.

 

ONLY 893 NBL fans turned up in Launceston for New Zealand's match with Adelaide, which must be a tad daunting for the managament and admin of next season's Tasmania JackJumpers team. Illawarra won't be the same Silverdome drawcard as Perth but the Breakers can generate their own buzz and will need to in this season-defining game. Lose this and NZ is near enough to done.

 

 

A loss in this one would greatly harm Illawarra too, making this a huge game.

 

WHAT a terrific performance Cairns put in at home against Adelaide recently, before beating the Breakers in Launceston. Those types of efforts augur well for the Taipans in the longer term, but their home loss to the Phoenix was a big blip. Cam Oliver was important in Cairns' wins over the 36ers and this time in Adelaide, his absence may prove too much to cover.

 

 

Tipping erratic Adelaide for two wins is fraught with peril.

 

CALL it the "grand final preview" if you wish and not too many will argue the point. But Bryce Cotton does have a history of carrying Perth to big wins in Melbourne. Yes, there still is a long way to go to conclude the regular season but a United win here would just about seal the regular season championship and with it, homecourt advantage through the semis and grands. What an epic end to Round 16.

 

 

This time United's depth should be the key.

 

Safest Bet of the Round: Breakers import Colton Iverson will look very tired ... shortly after the national anthem.