The Tips & Rankings 18/16
TweetIT doesn't get any bigger for the NBL than tonight's fixture between finals wannabe Adelaide and reigning champion New Zealand at the hotbed which is The Fortress at Titanium Security Arena.
If the 36ers win, all speculation about what might happen from here to the final siren on the regular season becomes redundant as far as the top four goes because the door will officially be closed.
It would turn Friday's match in Cairns for the 36ers into a "dead rubber" because the Taipans couldn't catch their record and the Breakers would be gone because Adelaide would have the season-series 3-1.
Sunday's Grand Final revisist between New Zealand and Cairns also would be little more than a pride fixture too.
By any calculation, it's a monster of a match tonight.
If the Breakers win, it's on for all three teams. It makes Friday's game in Cairns critical. It adds relevance to Sunday's match. It effectively throws open the door to the four.
NO DOUBT: Tonight's match against NZ is the big one for Adelaide and Lucas Walker.
And here's the rub of course. The 36ers will be down injured superstar import Jerome Randle for both games so the door already is slightly ajar.
New Zealand hasn't been playing badly of late, but just isn't the Breakers we know.
Adelaide has a 2-1 series lead and +15 points on the Breakers but must draw another super performance from Ebi Ere, a big game from Daniel Johnson in his 200th NBL outing and the same energy from Mitch Creek, Lucas Walker and Co.
They don't get any bigger than this. Well, not in the regular season.
OUT Bendigo way, they're hyping the third and final WNBL regular season tryst of the Spirit and Townsville Fire on Sunday.
They're saying: "Forget Carlton and Collingwood, Ford and Holden, Navratilova and Evert, Hawke and Keating, Coke and Pepsi or Athens and Sparta" because Bendigo-Townsville is the rivalry of them all.
It is an amazing rivalry, built over contesting the past three championship playoffs, Bendigo winning two and Townsville the defending champion.
But surely Ali-Frazier, Bird-Magic, Borg-McEnroe, Whitlam-Fraser and Hatfields-McCoys rated ahead of Athens-Sparta? If you haven't seen the movie "300" that reference may even be too oblique.
One thing is for sure though, it is big in the playoff machinations of both clubs.
BIG SUNDAY: Spirit playmaker Kelly Wilson will be a key player in the GF rematch.
"How great is it that the only two non-metropolitan teams in the WNBL have been so strong for the past few years," Bendigo coach Simon Pritchard said.
It is great and promises one hell of a showdown too.
Even Brock Lesnar and The Undertaker would be impressed.
LOVE a lot of the stuff the NBL website churns out but its "Under the Radar" feature this week could not have been much more out.
A story about the league's unsung heroes seemed like a good idea and nominating one for each club even better.
But with all abundant respect to Brendan Teys at Adelaide this season, he hasn't been an unsung hero. He definitely was in 2014 but has struggled for form and while you can never fault his effort or intensity, the unsung hero at the 36ers has been Nathan Sobey.
The rookie has done several memorable things and never taken a backward step. His athleticism has sparked his team, whether it is throwing down a dunk or rejecting a shot.
Got no argument with Shaun Bruce at Cairns because he has taken a major step forward and been there when the club has needed him.
Kevin White at Illawarra also has performed above expectations, as retaining his starting spot when the Hawks are at full strength would indicate.
Again though, Brad Hill at United? An unsung hero? I might be wrong here but I'd suggest the player who has surprised us the most has been Majok Majok. Who outside United even knew much about him on Day One? He has been a rebounding fiend, a starter in a top team and an unsung hero.
Brad Hill? Not so much.
NICK KAY BLOCKS OUT: Under the radar? Most picked him for Rookie of the Year!
NO ARGUMENT: Shaun Bruce has been big for the Taipans this season.
Crocodiles' forward Nick Kay was an almost universal tip for Rookie of the Year so with his performances living up to that, how he is "under the radar" baffles me.
Tom Abercrombie, the Breakers' all-time leading scorer, four-time champion and a Larry Sengstock Medallist is "under the radar"?
Come on now. Not even qualifying that by saying "it's crazy but..." changes anything.
It's just crazy, period.
Rhys Carter has flown under the radar most of his career so there's no surprise there and while Tom Jervis has had some great games this season of Perth's bench, it's not as if that's new. The guy has already won a Rookie of the Year as a mature-age recruit and been key to a championship.
In a team boasting names such as Beal, Casey Prather, Jawai, Redhage, Martin and Wagstaff, Matt Knight's relentless work ethic often flies under the radar, as does Greg Hire's contribution off the bench.
QUESTION TIME
*DOES anyone else fear Kings coach Joe Connelly will do himself a neck injury with all the nodding he does while being questioned on TV?
*OTHER than the referees themselves, their supervisors and significant others, does anyone else in the NBL world believe they are doing a good job? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
*IS there any chance Joe Connelly's role model is Peanuts character Linus (above)?
*DOES Stevie Weigh wear contact lenses that don't fit or does he always blink excessively during time-outs?
*SERIOUSLY now, Connelly sucks on the towel because he has "a potty mouth" and it prevents him getting a technical? He is an adult, right?
*DOES any team show more consistent heart than Townsville?
THE Hawks may be the NBL's highest scoring outfit, but even they couldn't achieve the result below in the allotted 40 minutes.
NBL RANKINGS This Wk-Prev (Record)
8 (8) KINGS 5-20 - The wild west should hold plenty of fear for Sydney's wagon train.
7 (5) CROCODILES 9-16 - Can they finally kick sand at the Hawks at the Sandpit?
6 (7) BREAKERS 12-12 - The make or break round, any way you look at it.
5 (6) TAIPANS 11-14 - Out of their hands now, unless NZ wins in Adelaide.
4 (3) HAWKS 15-10 - Won once without Kirk and must split at least this round.
3 (2) 36ERS 14-10 - Beat NZ and top-four race is over. Lose and run home is torture.
2 (1) WILDCATS 16-9 - That was quite the hiccup against Melbourne. Pity Sydney.
1 (4) UNITED 17-8 - Stepped up and hit a home run. Time to tame Hawks on road.
WNBL RANKINGS This Wk-Prev (Record)
9 (9) CAPITALS 0-20 - Came home strongly against Adelaide but still didn't get it done.
8 (8) BOOMERS 7-14 - Playing development kids now and waiting for the final siren.
7 (7) LIGHTNING 8-12 - Going for a hat-trick of wins but SEQ unlikely to oblige.
6 (4) FLAMES 12-9 - Season is back teetering again and consistency a real worry.
5 (3) SPIRIT 12-8 - Townsville visit is big and the club is gearing for a huge day.
4 (6) STARS 11-8 - Capable of grabbing both road games with Perth depleted.
3 (5) RANGERS 13-7 - Can take huge step toward double chance with dual road wins.
2 (2) FIRE 13-6 - Two road wins would grab first place regardless of Perth's result.
1 (1) LYNX 14-6 - Without Louella, will find SEQ tough, even at home.
THIS WEEK'S TIPS
UNQUESTIONABLY the biggest match of the round tips it off when New Zealand battles Adelaide in Adelaide, the 36ers down Jerome Randle. Admittedly, the only game the 36ers have won this season without Randle was over the Breakers, but that was in Round 1 when Corey, Abers and The Pledge were missing. The 36ers win this and the final four race officially is over. The Breakers win and it's still open. The Breakers win by 15 or more and the Sixers are in trouble. This is huge and unless Ebi Ere again plays like the marquee import he was (and has again been showing) New Zealand can steal it. At home, still leaning toward Adelaide but it's a value bet.
OFFICIALLY on the Melbourne bandwagon, now that Nathan Strempel has cleared some room, the showdown with Illawarra in Wollongong should be huge. After they were blitzed by Perth, coach Rob Beveridge fired up his Hawks to beat the 36ers, even with Randle. He needs to do the same job again for Illawarra, minus Kirk Penney, to slow the United juggernaut. Melbourne to win.
IT'S near-impossible to pick a winner of the Cairns-Adelaide game without factoring in Wednesday's result for the 36ers against NZ. If they won, this game becomes a dead rubber. If they lost, the Taipans can steal the season-series from Adelaide and still keep the playoff flame flickering. Sorry. This one's too hard to call right now. Come back Friday.
PERTH will be wild about blowing its chances to take top spot from United last week and should have no mercy on a Sydney team counting down the days to season's end. Whether Josh Childress, a villain at The Jungle after his incident last season with Jesse Wagstaff, can overcome the crowd's animosity will be important for the Kings. But even if he plays a blinder, it's tough to see Sydney winning.
TOWNSVILLE at Wollongong has upset written all over it, even though the Crocs repeatedly have shown a complete inability to handle the Hawks' relentless attack and scoring options. With top four positioning so important, Illawarra again should have the answers. But expect a more spirited effort from the Crocodiles this time around.
AGAIN, it is impossible to call the New Zealand-Cairns result in Auckland on Sunday without first knowing the Adelaide-New Zealand result. That's how big that game is. But you know that. Sorry, but if you want a tip on this one, you'll just have to come back here on Sunday.
ADELAIDE Lightning has exceeded all expectations already but pinching a game off finals-conscious SEQ appears the unlikeliest of WNBL upsets. Kayla Standish had a terrific weekend but the Stars have Ify Ibekwe back and are gearing for the final finals push. Lightning to see Stars.
IF Dandenong takes out Sydney, the Flames are out, making this a very important fixture for Shannon Seebohm's outfit. But without Carolyn Swords last round, Sydney showed plenty of heart in Townsville so don't rule out a home win. For the Rangers, this is a step toward the double chance.
IT'S been a long, injury-riddled season for Melbourne and hosting a Townsville team searching for top spot won't make life any easier this round. The Fire are adjusting to life without Tamara Tatham while the Boomers have had numerous such player losses to negotiate. They will go down fighting, but go down they will.
SEQ has every chance to take out the Lynx in Perth, their size a factor while Louella Tomlinson is out of commission. Sure, the Adelaide game and its residue could be important but with a finals berth waiting, the Stars have plenty of motivation. At home and with DJ Lachy Reid putting off the opposition, Perth is tough, but SEQ can get this and it won't surprise if it does.
MAYBE the match of the round, certainly the matchup of regular sparring partners, a lot will ride on Townsville's result against arch rival Bendigo in Bendigo. If there's one venue the Fire are familiar with, it's Bendigo's so homecourt becomes somewhat negated, as it did when the Spirit won in Townsville. Twice. This is a big none and the Fire's depth may shine through.
HEADING for its 21st straight loss of the season, Canberra still will be buoyed by the fact it took Adelaide to a three-point result and the Lightning twice have beaten Dandenong. Can they break the drought against a Rangers team coming in off a game in Sydney? With the double chance at stake, Dandenong won't falter.
KNOCK KNOCK
Who's there?
Fecal
Fecal who?
If-he-calls anymore such shockers, they'll have to dismantle the replay board.