The Tips & Rankings 19/17
TweetWHAT are the chances Melbourne will play defending NBL champion New Zealand five times in a row or Adelaide playing Perth four times in succession?
One or the other is pretty good, you'd reckon.
If United finishes top as expected and New Zealand retains its tenuous hold on fourth, then after their home/away games this round to close the regular season, they will head into the best-of-three semi. That goes the distance and, yep, they've played five times in a row.
Should the 36ers win their last two games, including beating Perth in Perth on Sunday, and they would finish third. Perth would be second, meaning they will meet in the best-of-three semi, or potentially four times in a row.
Such anomalies cannot be foreseen when a schedule first is made but if even a cursory attempt was made for each team to play its seven opponents in some sort of chronological order, then again for a second round, third round and fourth, the likelihood would be far less.
And fans wouldn't be subjected to seeing their team play the same opponent (several times this season within 48 hours) in consecutive matchups.
CARRIE Graf retiring from her role as Canberra's most successful WNBL coach - despite this season's shortcomings - has been on the cards for a while.
Former AIS coach and championship-winner Phil Brown was sought out by the media this week to suss his interest but my tip is keep your eyes on Chris Lucas up in Townsville.
He's taken the Fire to three straight Grand Finals, one championship and his team is in solid shape again this season, despite losing import Tamara Tatham to injury.
Lucas is out of contract at season's end, was a Graf assistant with the Capitals, and would be a lot closer to his hometown of Adelaide if he was coaching in Canberra.
HAS the world gone crazy or is it just Queenslanders?
The police in Townsville confiscating the T-shirt "cannon" of the Croc mascot because it qualifies under legislation as a weapon has to be the saddest example of political correctness this month.
The fun police were out in force and you can't help wondering, aren't there any REAL issues to deal with in Townsville?
Any other mascot firing a T-shirt gun, cannon, rifle had better be on notice - you're not far away from having to revert back to the slingshot. And if that happens, you better hope Goliath doesn't file a complaint.
QUESTION TIME
*Does Perth TV caller Brad "The Pirate" Robbins think he's fooling the viewers when he also describes the visiting team as "we" or is that just a case of clever a$$-covering for his occasional Perth faux pas?
*Do the Taipans practice flopping or is the floor just more slippery in Cairns?
*Did SKY TV caller Casey Frank really describe the shot blocker's comment after blocking a shot last Sunday as: "Get that shot out of here?" Or was Casey just getting his vowels mixed up, as they tend to do in New Zealand?
*Is everyone aware it's not legal to place bets on games your team might be playing in?
*Are any of the Melbourne Boomers going as "the Black Cat" for Saturday's "Superheroes and Villains" themed home game against the Lightning? A black cat would explain a lot, don't you think?
*How smart does Sydney Kings management look right now? They sacked coach Damian Cotter when the team was 3-9 and had been playing most of its games without Josh Childress. In comes Joe Connelly, the American saviour. What's his record? Would you believe, 2-12?
NBL RANKINGS This Wk-Prev (Record)
8 (8) KINGS 5-21 - Tough end to a tough season but claiming Perth's scalp would be huge.
7 (7) CROCODILES 9-17 - Cairns and Sydney gives Townsville a chance to finish on a high.
6 (5) TAIPANS 12-15 - Must overcome disappointment to beat old enemy on the road.
5 (3) 36ERS 14-12 - Blew it last round but with Randle back, season still alive.
4 (6) BREAKERS 14-12 - On playoff doorstep again but no welcome mat from Melbourne.
3 (4) HAWKS 16-11 - At full strength and at home should be able to dent Adelaide's hopes.
2 (2) WILDCATS 17-9 - Wins over Sydney and Adelaide could still land first for Perth.
1 (1) UNITED 18-8 - Just need a split at worst this round against NZ to fulfill destiny.
WNBL RANKINGS This Wk-Prev (Record)
9 (9) CAPITALS 0-21 - Life gets no easier as a doughnut looms ominously over 2015-16.
8 (7) LIGHTNING 8-13 - Facing a challenging trip but opponents may still be hamstrung.
7 (8) BOOMERS 7-15 - Chance to grab seventh and at home with some faces returning.
6 (6) FLAMES 12-10 - Season has flickered out but will want to close with a bang.
5 (5) SPIRIT 12-9 - For finals berth, must beat Adelaide regardless of Griffin's status.
4 (1) LYNX 14-7 - Have to win on the road now and neither game is a shoo-in.
3 (3) RANGERS 15-7 - A major chance to take a giant leap forward and show bona fides.
2 (4) STARS 13-8 - Looked the goods last week and with big home support will shine.
1 (2) FIRE 15-6 - Chance to make a statement at home against a title threat wannabe.
THIS WEEK'S TIPS
PERTH beat Sydney at Perth Arena last week by 14 points and received a career-game from backup centre Tom Jervis to do it. In Sydney and down starters Damian Martin (ankle), Jermaine Beal (back), Casey Prather (hamstring) and Nate Jawai (back) the door is wide open for the Kings to finish their home record with a win. That said, the Wildcats won't be mailing this in because they still have a genuine shot at first place so it should be a cracker. Sydney, just.
THE Reptile Rumble (above) always is a great fixture but this one has added interest because Cairns' mindset will be so relevant. Beaten last week in New Zealand to have even their remote shot at the postseason dashed, will the Taipans be "up" for this or lamenting a lost season? Townsville's inexperience cost it an overtime loss to Illawarra which will have burned all week. The north's bragging rights still makes this interesting and homecourt might prove the difference.
THIS is the big game for New Zealand now, hosting NBL leader Melbourne. If Perth beats Sydney, United still needs the win to finally fully secure the regular season championship - and its abundant playoff advantages - and the Breakers have to win to retain their spot in the top four. Of course, if the Wildcats lost, this doesn't mean a whole lot to United suddenly, although a team finishing top will want to play like it. It's still a bit of a coin toss but, at home and rolling, I'm tipping the Breakers.
IF you are Illawarra, do you want to play Perth in a semi final series? Or United? An Adelaide win in Wollongong leaves the door open for a Hawks-United semi final, if the 36ers also win in Perth. At this time of year though, it's risky to take chances with your form. Instead, both sides are at full strength for the first time in four meetings but with the desperation Adelaide has to have if it is to progress to the semis, it may have an edge this time.
HOW the Kings fared against Perth no doubt will colour their approach in Townsville where the Crocs, in the last game of the season, will want to put on a show for their steadily returning fanbase. Other than 2016-17 contracts, most of the Kings have nothing to play for while Shawn Dennis' youthful crew will be desperate to close the season on a high. Expect that to happen.
IT is going to be quite the show when Melbourne hosts New Zealand, with many treats planned for the crowd, quite apart from a tremendous finals-like game of basketball. This time around, United should come out on top, sealing the regular season champoionship and leaving the Breakers waiting on the Perth-Adelaide result to know if their season is over.
TREVOR Gleeson is on the record saying he won't tamper with form at the business end of a season so with Martin, Beal, Prather and Jawai all expected to suit at home, Perth will be at full potency for its clash with Adelaide. Again, how other results through this round have fallen will come into effect so while today I'd expect a Wildcats victory, by Sunday, it could be a different tale.
THE big test for Dandenong arrives with its one-and-done trip to the lair of defending WNBL champion Townsville. The Rangers at their best can douse the Fire but drawing consistent focused performances from this young group has been coach Larissa Anderson's challenge. Veterans such as The Batgirl, Cayla George, Mia Murray etcetera already appreciate what this result means in terms of clinching the regular season championship and finals homecourt advantage. It is why the Fire will win.
CANBERRA is just three games away from the first winless season in the club's storied WNBL history but it has enough weapons to upset Perth. The problem has been getting all those weapons firing at the same time. The Lynx will be anxious to bounce back from last week's home loss to SEQ and should do just that.
IF Melbourne beats Adelaide, it will reclaim seventh place on the ladder from the Lightning, who are unlikely to beat 2015 Grand Finalists Bendigo and Townsville in their remaining two games. That makes this huge for the visitors and equally important for Melbourne, the Boomers still capable of saving face on a season riddled with an awful run of injuries. This will be like a mini grand final, with homecourt possibly the deciding factor.
EVEN if Sydney wins its last two games to finish on 14-10, would that be good enough to reclaim its top four spot? Upsets notwithstanding, it's seriously unlikely, especially with SEQ (13 wins) hosting Canberra. Pride will be riding on this outcome for the Flames but the win is far more important to Perth as it jockeys for positioning in the postseason. No Swords, no Tomlinson still adds up to a Lynx win.
REMATCH: Lightning's Tara Robinson posts up Bendigo's Ashleigh Spencer. Pic: TREVOR KINROSS
JUMPING into vehicles and heading to Bendigo after playing Melbourne will make facing the rested Spirit in Bendigo even more difficult for Adelaide. Bendigo remains well in the thick of the top-four hunt but if star forward Kelsey Griffin (hamstring) remains out of the lineup, it is far more vulnerable to an Adelaide team which has upset it once before. Griffin's presence looks essential.
ON the road to SEQ for Valentine's Day, Canberra can expect to be confronted by a red hot home team playing in front of its biggest crowd of the season as fans rally behind the Stars' cause and for the club's future. The chances of a Capitals upset here are remote, to say the least.
KNOCK KNOCK
Who's there?
Wendy
Wendy who?
When the final siren sounds, we'll finally know the top four's definitive makeup.