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How good a guide is the preseason tourney?


AS the NBL's 19th preseason tournament prepares to get underway tomorrow night in Townsville, it's a good time to ponder how reflective its results may be, come the real season.

Given the NBL has worked its way through 37 sometimes-excellent, often-difficult seasons but only started warming to preseason tournaments as "a thing" in 1987, it is no big surprise there's only been 18 so far.

But what did they tell us about teams' chances when the REAL stuff began?

Somewhat surpisingly, considering how quickly coaches dismiss preseason games largely as irrelevant and as places to trial, rotate and check out new players and systems, the preseason events often have provided playoff teams.

How often?

Well, out of 18 preseason tournaments, only once has the winner or runner-up NOT made the end-of-season playoffs.

That's a barely believable 17 out of 18 times the finalists or winner have made it on to the post-season, or 94.4444 per cent!

I know I'm shocked, because so often I've been among those quick to dismiss preseason form.

Last year at the Blitz in Brisbane, for example, all the talk was about Perth Wildcats and Melbourne United being stacked, and could any team prevent their inevitable eventual clash for the championship?

So New Zealand Breakers beat Cairns Taipans for the championship, Perth having bowed out in  the semis and United watching the playoffs on TV.

If you recall, Townsville Crocodiles won the Blitz last year. They finished sixth when the regular season concluded so ultimately, it was no guide for this year's Blitz host.

But if you also recall, Cairns Taipans finished second at the Blitz. They may have missed out on the Loggins-Bruton Cup, but they were playing off for the Dr John Raschke Trophy.

REIGNING BLITZ CHAMPS: The Crocodiles finished the regular season in sixth place.

In other words, incredibly, the preseason tournament - despite all the coaches say - DOES give some insight into what will happen when the real stuff starts.

Check out our previous preseasons:

1987 Schweppes Australian Basketball Classic: Perth beats Adelaide in the Final, clearly announcing it is going to be a force from then on. Perth finishes the NBL losing the Grand Final that year, Adelaide knocked out in the semis. 1st and 2nd at the Classic to 2nd and 3rd that season.

1988 Aussie Tapes Classic: Newcastle Falcons beat Perth in the final. The Falcons make the six-team playoffs and finish 5th, the Wildcats reach the semi finals.

1989 K-Mart Aussie Preseason Classic: Brisbane Bullets beat Westside Saints in the Final. This is the one year when preseason form really did mean zip, Brisbane finishing 8th of the 13 teams, the Saints 9th.

1990 K-Mart Classic: Illawarra Hawks beat Eastside Spectres in the Final. The Spectres went on to the semi finals, the Hawks finishing 8th of 14.

1991 K-Mart Classic: Eastside Spectres beat Sydney Kings in the Final. Eastside went on to the NBL Grand Final, the Kings finished 7th.

1992 K-Mart Classic: Gold Coast Rollers beat South East Melbourne in the Final. The Rollers went on to finish the season 10th of the 13 teams that year. But South East? The Magic won the Championship.

1993 K-Mart Classic: Adelaide 36ers rolled Perth Wildcats in the Final. The Sixers went out in the NBL quarter-finals while Perth made it to the Grand Final.

1999 NBL Blitz: Victoria Titans took out Townsville Crocodiles in the Final. The Titans lost the Grand Final in three games that year, Townsville 7th of 11.

2000 K-Time NBL Blitz: Victoria Titans knocked over Cairns Taipans in the Final. The Titans then went on to lose in the semi finals and Cairns crashed to 9th out of 11.

2004 ABC Learning Centres Blitz: Adelaide 36ers smacked Sydney Kings in the Final. The Kings went on to win the Championship, the Sixers out in the quarter-finals.

2005 NBL Blitz: Melbourne Tigers over Brisbane Bullets in the Final. Melbourne became the first team to complete the double, winning the 2005-06 Championship. Brisbane lost in the quarters.

2006 NBL Blitz: Brisbane Bullets beat Melbourne Tigers in the Final. Brisbane won the Championship, Melbourne lost the Grand Final. It is the only time the preseason completely accurately reflected what was to come.

2009 Top End Challenge: Wollongong Hawks put away the NZ Breakers. The Hawks lost the Grand Final that year while the Breakers were 5th of 8.

2010 Top End Challenge: Perth Wildcats iced Cairns Taipans in the Final. But come the main season and it was the Taipans who made it to the Grand Final while Perth went out in the semis.

2011 Sunshine State Challenge: Perth Wildcats were too deep for Sydney Kings in the Final. Perth went on to the Grand Final that year, the Kings finishing 7th of 9.

2012 NBL Preseason: Perth Wildcats took out the Wollongong Hawks in the Final. The Wildcats lost the Grand Final, the Hawks bowed out in the semis.

2013 NBL Blitz: Perth Wildcats won the newly-revised system (3 points for a win, one point for every quarter won, 7 points maximum available per game). Cairns Taipans finished second. Perth won the Championship to become only the second club to complete the Blitz/NBL Championship double. Cairns finished 5th.

2014 NBL Blitz: Townsville Crocs won, then finished 6th. Blitz runner-up Cairns played off in the Grand Final.

It's quite amazing really but for all the rhetoric, the truth - as borne out by historical fact - is that at least one of the top two teams out of this Blitz either will win the Championship (five times), reach the Grand Final (15) or at the very worst, get to the semis (6).

(Four reached quarter-finals too, when we still had those.)

That's a form guide worth remembering when plotting NBL season predictions!

 

Online

Hakim racing time for Blitz debut: http://bit.ly/1FZkewA

Lightning wait on Leilani: http://bit.ly/1FZAeyM

 

 

Sep 22

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