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THIS WEEK'S TIPS

THEY'RE back at it tonight in Auckland, revisiting the NBL's fiercest current rivalry as New Zealand tries to tie the four-match season-series against the enemy from the west. Perth leads 2-1, having won at home 83-80 in Rd2, and again at home 86-80 last round. The Breakers won 88-80 at Vector in between creating two interesting stats. One is, so far the team in this series to only reach 80 points is the night's loser, and two, the Wildcats lead 2-1 but only by +1 on points spread. In other words, NZ only has to win by a regulation basket to clinch the series. How tight is that? What a gem to open the round and I'm leaning to homecourt being enough to get it done for the Breakers.

WITH the turmoil at Townsville and the Crocs board essentially declaring they believe their team is better off without reigning league MVP Brian Conklin than with him - do these people truly believe that one-off great performance to beat United in Melbourne without Conk was something these boys can reproduce on a regular basis? Did they just fast-forward over the Illawarra game? - coach Shawn Dennis is going to have to produce another miracle. The plucky Crocs' attitude already has made them everyone's favourite second team - including absent fans in Townsville it appears - but Cairns has the top four in its sights and has had a week to prepare.

LET me start with the caveat that if AJ Ogilvy is 100 per cent after banging knees last game, then Illawarra can add to Melbourne's self doubt with a win at WIN. Rhys Martin's return gives the Hawks their first-choice team for the only time so far this year which can work two ways - relieve the pressure on Kevin Lisch and ignite the new, true Hawks. Or everyone can mentally exhale with relief ... and find themselves in a dogfight chasing Chris Goulding, Stephen Holt, Todd Blanchfield and Co for 40 unsuccessful minutes. Ogilvy-Daniel Kickert or Majok Majok, are mouth-watering potential matchups but without tipping a beer on anyone, I like the Hawks for the upset.

WHENEVER a club sacks a coach, the next game the players seem to unite and play great. Whether that is because there's guilt they let the previous mentor down, or just the reaction to a new voice remains a mystery. But considering Sydney already has beaten Cairns this season and did it without King-maker Josh Childress, it will hit Cairns fairly confident from the get-go. The Taipans also will be playing their second game within 48 hours while Sydney has had all week to get itself ready for just this matchup and new coach Joe Connelly's machinations. It all spells "Kings" but if Cairns is to be considered legit and a playoff contender, it must bank this win.

HAVING twice beaten the 36ers in Adelaide, it is difficult to conceive of the reverse occurring in Perth. When Sixers "big" Matt Hodgson went down ahead of last week's game against Cairns, the Adelaide brains trust wasn't too concerned because the Taipans only play with one bona fide "big" in Matt Burston. But it's a different story in Perth where Knight, Jawai, Jervis, Wagstaff, Redhage ... the size is unrelenting. Adelaide will try to turn it into a track meet but to get that happening, it has to get its share of boards. This looks like a Perth home win. 

FLYING into Townsville, the Breakers will be looking to further consolidate their place in the top four and will come at the Crocs with too much firepower, Webster, Abers, Cedric all ever-present dangers and Charles Jackson the master of the lob-to-dunk. Nick Kay and Mitch Young again will have to provide plenty of interior presence to concern the likes of Vukona and Pledger and while Shawn Dennis assuredly will draw energy and fight from his charges, in the end it's just a manpower issue.

THROUGH the addition of livewire Jerome Randle, Adelaide boasts more firepower now than it did when United took care of business at home against the 36ers earlier this season. But the true test here for Joey Wright's crew is playing in Perth on Friday, flying to Melbourne on Saturday, with fronting United the third hurdle of the trio. Both clubs have justified finals aspirations so it's difficult to see both losing twice this round. My head says Melbourne, heart says Adelaide so best to revisit this one on the day (Sunday) when previous results can shed further light on a possible outcome.

OPENING the WNBL round, Adelaide is at Sydney to which it already has lost twice, home and away. It could have won both encounters but the insistence by Lightning coach Tracy York to play all 12 players in the first loss, then the fact Kayla Standish was meeting the team for the first time on the day of the second loss, are important factors. York doesn't have 12 players to appease on the road and Standish is now a team fixture so if Lightning is ever going to beat the Flames, it's this time. Coming off an embarrassing loss to Dandenong should bring a redemption-type performance though - and win - from Sydney.

LAST time Bendigo hit the road to Queensland, it lost to SEQ then stunned the Fire in Townsville. This time it starts in Townsville in a Grand Final revisit and after the Fire escaped Perth's clutches, they are unlikely to be unprepared for what Simon Pritchard's team brings. The Batkovic-George combination will mean Joy Burke will have to step up for the Spirit as Gabe Richards and Kelsey Griffin won't be enough. This should be a gem but a "revenge" game for Townsville.

THERE's already two candidates for match of the round but Perth at Dandenong may pip them. Twice now the Rangers have travelled west and been surprised by the Lynx's bona fides so they will be banking on Stud Road being the difference this time around. Sami Whitcomb has been one of the WNBL's less acknowledged success stories - that's what happens when you're waaay out west - and Tessa Lavey has added a dimension for Perth. On the door of the four, Dandenong needs a big one from Steph Cumming to get a W from Perth at long last.

CANBERRA had everything going for it last week - even the officials - but could not put away Melbourne. I guess that's what tends to happen when you're running an offence suited for Lauren Jackson but LJ isn't playing. Sydney's results have been inflated with previous wins over Adelaide and the Caps, and this round should should prove no different.

MELBOURNE will have watched Perth's game against Dandenong to see if its scout notes need any further polishing. The benefit of sitting back while your next opponent is in full battle mode will be laid bare at the State Basketball Centre where the Boomers must make a stand or start resigning themselves to being spectators at the post-season. The Lynx too will again want to assert their ability to win on the road. Is this the match of the round? Suspect a Perth win here.

THE Rangers will be vulnerable to Adelaide at The Lighthouse because the Lightning do have sufficient quality personnel for another upset. Standish, Ruef, Mitchell and Dombkins are solid pieces, Bowen returns from injury and there's enough exuberance off the bench for Adelaide to get this done. Dandenong's stability and ability to bring its best still has to make it the favourite but Larissa Anderson - subject of a great feature article this week by Melbourne colleague Megan Hustwaite - will be most aware of the dangers Adelaide presents

BEATEN in this fixture last time around when everything was fresh, new and lovely at Logan, Bendigo knows what to expect this time around from SEQ. The honeymoon is over for the Stars but there's still abundant talent with players such as Mansfield and Payne stepping up in support of Rachel Jarry. Unlike last time to Queensland when it went 1-1, this time I'm tipping Bendigo to go reverse its loss and its win and, well, I guess it IS like last time, and go 1-1.