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Just the Tips, Rd10


THIS WEEK'S TIPS

CAIRNS opens the round at Wollongong in a match it must win to further restart its finals drive, given a brief reprieve with last round's win over Sydney. But Illawarra, finally at full strength, now has the requisite talent across the board to keep the Taipans at bay, and the Hawks' defenders also now know to speak up when Matt Burston is lining a teammate up for a backscreen. This time, it's the Hawks.

MUCH hinges on whether Townsville's new import arrival Omar Samhan has the paperwork done in time to suit against Adelaide, even though the young Crocs already have shown a great willingness to work hard for each other. If the 36ers played with Townsville's work ethic, or if the Crocs had Adelaide's talent, this would be easier to pick. With the top four within reach, I'm guessing Adelaide will prevail.

AND then it will be on in Perth! The Wildcats don't have to be reminded Jermaine Beal had a layup to beat United in Melbourne where the referees became - shall we say? - confused, believing Majok Majok scored a clean Ma-block Ma-block and Perth was denied the win. The energetic inside work of Matt Knight, coupled with the awe-inspiring presence of The Beast, with Tom Jervis coming in and challenging for a double-double, gives Perth a decided inside advantage. Jesse Wagstaff and Shawn Redhage are almost wasted but inevitably their talent shines through. Oh, and Damian Martin is starting to find it, as is the import pairing. Melbourne invincible? That was looong ago. Perth wins. 

UNLESS Sydney pulls a rabbit out of a hat, and by rabbit I mean a sparkling new, young, injury-free, athletic import to replace Josh Childress, New Zealand will have a field day at home. The Breakers have top spot in their sightlines and, what's that? Tai Wesley could be back? Corey Webster reckons I wronged Charles Jackson just because I thought the big fella was wearing roller-skates last week but there's no doubt our league's WMD, Tom Abercrombie, The Entertainer, Mika, and even young Charles in Charge are running into ominous form. The Kings will get crowned.

BACK home in Cairns, I am expecting the Taipans to have found a way to reverse Wednesday's loss in Wollongong. If a coaching combination of Aaron Fearne and Gordie McLeod cannot unravel the Hawks' weaknesses and find a formula for victory, then it's tough to see playoffs in Cairns' future. That is, of course, assuming Cam Gliddon and Co. execute the plan. I absolutely like Cairns for the W here but I'd prefer to reserve final judgment until after I've seen the Sandpit clash.

THE same applies to the second of the round's rematches, when Townsville comes in to Titanium Security Arena to face Adelaide. Is Samhan playing? How did the first match at the Swamp pan out? Did anyone get hurt? These are pretty relevant issues. On the surface though, at home for the first time in several weeks, I would expect the 36ers to be roared on to victory.

IF Perth has swatted Melbourne as expected, it will storm into Sydney looking to take no prisoners. Julian Khazzouh and Tommy Garlepp are going to need help battling the Wildcats' beasts inside and it's tough to see who will contain Casey Prather and Jermaine Beal on the flying wings. It looks like another afternoon of Joe Connelly waving his little white towel, though not throwing it in. Heavens no.

HOW the mighty are stumbling, SEQ lately having a few internal issues to sort. But the WNBL's newest club now has had time to settle in Jordan Hooper, and Iffy Ibekwe was strident last round. Can they cross to the west and steal the scalp of the in-form Lynx? It's a good question and expect Louella Tomlinson to go to work, having missed the Opals 12 for the Rio "test" series next month. Perth imports Sami Whitcomb and Betnijah Laney are getting it done and Tessa Lavey is growing into the role Brendan Joyce foresaw for her. Seeing a Perth win here in a top contest.

IF Dandenong didn't learn a valuable lesson last round about not taking "lesser light" opponents for granted, it never will. My betting is the Rangers have had sufficient time to reflect on bungling a road win over Adelaide and assuredly will not blow a homer against winless Canberra. Dandenong continues to hang around the top four and this is precisely the type of win it must lock away.

ROLLING now and on a high after beating Townsville and SEQ on the road, Bendigo should have its way with Melbourne. The Boomers are all over the place at present, while the Spirit have been building, Belinda Snell in bewitching form, Aussie Griffin ever reliable and Gabe Richards presenting a dilemma for Guy Molloy's disjointed crew. The big question this week is will Alice Kunek go statless and win, or deliver game-high points and lose?

BELL OF THE BALL: Belinda Snell has been in ripping form. Picture courtesy TREVOR KINROSS.

SYDNEY has been unimpressive of late but then Townsville is presenting the WNBL with a real Jekyll-and-Hyde outfit. Wait. You're too young to dig that reference? OK. Try this. From week to week, it's difficult to know if the Fire will show up with Beauty, or the Beast. How's that? (Phew. Thank heavens for Disney.) The Fire at its best would get Sydney but the Flames also are unpredictable, previously beating the Fire in Townsville. Cannot picture Adelaide whupping Townsville by 27 anytime soon though, the way it did the Flames. This game has two chances of being exceptional - if both teams bring their A-games or if neither do. Townsville will.

WHEN Bendigo rolled into Adelaide after playing in Perth, the Lightning gave the Spirit an unhappy surprise. SEQ can expect much of the same when it rolls into which ever venue Adelaide is in, depending on the temperature. The Lightning are staring squarely at three wins in a row in a season many didn't expect them to even break the egg in the W column. Again, Friday's outcome out west may be a factor but if Adelaide's players continue to stick together, it can be a hat-trick.

LAST time Canberra played Melbourne, I expected the Caps to break their winning drought. It's since grown into a fullblown famine too but if the Capitals are going to pinch one anytime soon, this will be it. The Boomers are ripe for the plucking, waivering in their commitment to the cause. How they went against Bendigo will be a factor but without knowing that - Nostradamus hasn't been returning my calls (I suspect he knows they're coming and is conveniently "out") - I'm predicting the end of the Caps' long losing slide.

Dec 9

Content, unless otherwise indicated, is © copyright Boti Nagy.